Aug Review: 

   August saw the continued increase in single family home inventory; however because of the high amount of buyer activity, the added number of homes for sale was not enough to improve the months supply of inventory (which is now at 1.4 months).  The short story, low inventory continues to drive the real estate market on Cape Cod.  Tracking other metrics, we saw median sales price remain high, though not as high as the peak of $654k back in March.  "Days on Market" increased slightly from the low in June and "% of asking price received" has been decreasing since May; both of these indicate that the craziness of the market may be behind us. We can continue to expect higher prices and low inventory for some time, heavily favoring sellers.

 Whichever seat you are in, whether buying, selling or vacation renting, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	June	July	Aug
Closed Sales	404	358	378
Inventory	502	544	535
Median Sales Price	$600k	$600k	$619k
Avg Days on Market	23	22	29
Avg % of Original Price	104%	104%	101%

July Review: 

   The real estate market on Cape Cod continues with the same trends we have now seen for months.  Inventory is (very) slowly creeping up but remains far too low to meet demand from buyers.  By comparison, in July 2020, there were 1,184 single family homes on the market, in July 2021, it was only 544.  Currently single family home supply is at 1.3 months, which is about as unbalanced in favor of sellers as the market can be ("said the writer, foolishly, while glancing over the precipice").  However while these numbers are shocking, they certainly aren't surprising and we expect the current trends of low inventory, high prices, and quick turnover, to continue for the foreseeable future.  

  In other news, we are keeping an eye on the eviction moratorium that was recently extended by the federal government. When this does expire we can expect even more stress to be placed on the already stressed year-round Cape Cod rental housing market as newly evicted tenants scramble to find housing.  Also, will owners with months (or years!) of lost income suddenly need to sell? Could this cause the glut of inventory we are looking for or will it be cause for further alarm as former year-round rental properties are scooped up and used instead by investors for short-term vacation rentals?

 Whichever seat you are in, whether buying, selling or vacation renting, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	May	June	July
Closed Sales	347	404	358
Inventory	448	502	544
Median Sales Price	$630k	$600k	$600k
Avg Days on Market	38	23	22
Avg % of Original Price	105%	104%	104%

June Review: 

    The main driver in the market right now is still low inventory which is currently and will continue to influence the real estate trends on Cape Cod for a while at least.  As you take a look at our infographic, note that many indicators are now trending negative compared to last year. Closed sales, pending sales and inventory are all directly related in this case and reflect the dearth of salable real estate on the market.  Additionally, we have been tracking precipitous declines in "Average Days on Market", not only compared to last year but also since March - with June's average days on market hitting a new low of 23.  As this metric is measured as an average, it tells us homes which had been on the market for many months, or even years, are mostly all sold now and thus no longer skewing this number upwards. In fact, the median days on market in June was 6. Six!  Homes that have languished on the market for 700 days are finally being sold, thus we gain insight into just how ravenous buyer demand is.

 Whichever seat you are in, whether buying, selling or vacation renting, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	Apr	May	June
Closed Sales	307	347	404
Inventory	394	448	502
Median Sales Price	$625k	$630k	$600k
Avg Days on Market	57	38	23
Avg % of Original Price	101%	105%	104%

April Review: 

  As we venture into April we can start comparing market numbers from COVID impacted months in 2020; put simply, the market now is far hotter than it was right at the start of the pandemic.  As you can see in our "What's Up & What's Down?" graphic at right market activity is up in every category except for inventory and days on market.  Of more interest is the trend over the past few months.  April saw a significant gain in inventory for the first time since spring of 2020 and median sales price dropped compared to last month (March '21).  As we look to the future we are hopeful that these are indicators inventory will steadily increase thus helping to sate the incredible buyer appetite for Cape Cod homes.  While we can't predict the future we do know that the market is incredibly favorable to sellers and, if you are interested in selling, now is the time.  

 Whichever seat you are in, whether buying, selling or vacation renting, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	Feb	Mar	Apr
Closed Sales	264	290	307
Inventory	343	346	394
Median Sales Price	$560k	$654k	$625k
Avg Days on Market	76	76	57
Avg % of Original Price	98%	99%	101%

March Review: 

   The real estate market on Cape Cod continues to be exceptional.  An interesting point in this month's data is that, for the fist time since June 2020, closed sales are actually down compared to the previous year. This suggests, more than anything, that inventory is so low we simply can't keep increasing the closed sales numbers we have been seeing. March 2020, the start of the pandemic, had not yet felt any significant COVID effects and inventory was 1,471 homes. Now, in March 2021 it's just 346. As a result our typical Springtime increase in market activity is being throttled by a dearth in inventory but we are crossing our fingers that this will not last for much longer.  What we can tell you is that the market will be in unpredictable and unprecedented water for some time to come.

But it isn't all bad news friends! Many signs are pointing to a gang-busters summer with vacation rental bookings at all-time highs and numerous other metrics indicative of a busy summer economy on the Cape. Whichever seat you are in, whether buying, selling or vacation renting, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	Jan	Feb	Mar
Closed Sales	297	264	290
Inventory	453	343	346
Median Sales Price	$570k	$560k	$654k
Avg Days on Market	67	76	76
Avg % of Original Price	98%	98%	99%

February Review: 

  The Cape Cod real estate market continues into unprecedented territory driven largely by dwindling inventory. At the end of February there were 343 homes for sale in Barnstable County, which is down 77% from the same period in 2020 and continues the trend of decreasing inventory we have seen largely unbroken since the start of the pandemic in the Spring of last year. This is a shockingly low number of homes for sale and has driven the "months of inventory" to less than 1 month - considering a "healthy market" has 5 or 6 months of inventory this number is concerning. Furthermore with historically low mortgage rates (though not record low any more) the frenzy for buyers to get into the market ASAP does not seem to be going away any time soon. As vaccination rates increase and life slowly begins to return to some semblance of normalcy we are hopeful that inventory will slowly start to increase leading to a more sustainable real estate market. Whichever seat you are in, whether buying or selling, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

Recent Market Summary

	Dec	Jan	Feb
Closed Sales	491	297	264
Inventory	542	453	343
Median Sales Price	$570K	$570k	$560k
Avg Days on Market	57	67	76
Avg % of Original Price	98%	98%	98%

January Review: 

While the January market was still exceptional, it gave us the first opportunity to breath since May of 2020; however this was not a typical "seasonal slow-down".  Median price was up 33% from this time last year but held steady compared to the previous month, December 2020. Additionally closed sales declined significantly in January, to 297, which is more standard for this time of year. However the abysmal inventory (almost exactly 1000 fewer units than this time last year!) means that, what appears to be a slow down in the market is largely driven by the frenetic pace at which homes are being put under agreement, and therefore taken off the market. In other words, of course the industry saw a slowdown in house sales in January, there were only 453 homes in all of Barnstable County available to sell!

These numbers favor sellers greatly and the best advice we can give a potential seller is -- sell! The desperately market needs an infusion of inventory to start rebalancing and, since construction isn't keeping pace, the existing housing stock has to make up some of this ground.  With a prolonged dearth of inventory we see home affordability continuing to decrease on Cape Cod which will have larger ramifications for both the local economy and the shape of the real estate market on Cape Cod.

Whichever seat you are in, whether buying or selling, the professionals at Chatelain Real Estate are here to give you the expert advice you will need to make your transaction a success. For more market data check out our blog category Real Estate Trends.  You can also give us a call any time - we look forward to hearing from you.

 

 

 

Recent Market Summary

	Nov	Dec	Jan
Closed Sales	457	491	297
Inventory	724	542	453
Median Sales Price	$585k	$570K	$570k
Avg Days on Market	63	57	67
Avg % of Original Price	98%	98%	98%

FOR PART 1 IN THIS SERIES CLICK HERE

The big question is “what about 2021?” Will the strong market hold?  Will prices continue to climb?  Or are we in a bubble whose collapse is imminent?  The short answer is, as always: “we have no idea.”  But for a long answer, here are some factors we see swimming around in the crystal ball on Agnes’ desk:

1) COVID generated an incredible demand for properties on Cape Cod, driven largely by out-of-area buyers.  Many of these were shopping for second homes to escape the pandemic shutdowns in urban areas and retained their off-Cape home as their primary residence.  But many made the move to Cape Cod permanently, attracted to the high quality public schools, phenomenal outdoor recreation, arts and culture scene, and of course, fried fish.  The extent to which either group will remain in the marketplace is the single greatest X-factor in predicting 2021 market performance.

2) Regardless of what happens with COVID demand, we are not generating enough new units on Cape, so we expect continued inventory problems.  This has been the story for 25 years across MA, and lack of new production has been driving median home prices to exceed median income by incrementally greater and greater margins every year.

3) The Fed's buying has contributed to massive amounts of cash in the marketplace, which even apart from COVID has been putting significant upward pressure on assets like real estate, bonds, gold, art, wine, etc... Everything we are reading suggests that this stimulus will continue.

4) Likewise, the Fed is signaling that they will keep the benchmark rate near 0% for the short-medium term, which favorably impacts mortgage rates and again puts upward pressure on real estate prices.

So what’s the roundup?  Items #2, 3 and 4 combine to suggest a continued strong market in the short term.  #1 is a wild card.  If things return to 'normal' and folks suddenly decide they no longer need or want that second home, or that they can no longer rationalize the expense, we may be in for a buyer’s market in the near future.  Only time will tell how things will play out.

2020 was a crazy year.  2021 is starting off on the same foot.  We have no idea what the future will bring.  But we do know this with 100% certainty: whatever the market brings, your Realtor will be a vital resource and ally ushering you through the buying, selling, or renting process, and there are no better agents out there than those at Chatelain Real Estate.  So pick up the phone, drop us an email, or stop by the office any time to discuss your needs -we’re here to help!
 

There are no two ways about it.  2020 was a remarkable year for the Cape Real Estate market.  We started off the year in familiar territory with January and February showing roughly the same level of market activity as in recent years.  But when the COVID pandemic took hold in March we saw a sudden slump in both pending sales and new listings – by the end of April new listings for single family homes were less than half of what they were in April 2019.  Things started to turn around in May, and by the end of July first quarter losses had already been erased and year-to-date median sale price and closed sales were up.  This trend continued until the end of the year, with record-setting monthly numbers in Q3 and Q4 eventually leading to a full 17.9% increase in median home sale price, and 19.8% increase in closed sales.

 

This 19.8% increase in closed sales happened in spite of inventory continuing to lag behind demand (see graphic above).  For example, buyers came back to the market in force in May. However, new listings of single family homes continued to drop until June, and by the end of the year never reached up to 2019 levels.  The most obvious effect of this low inventory is higher prices (a whopping 17.9% higher).  But it also leads to a faster and more aggressive market.  Total days on market was down this year, and homes are fetching closer and closer to asking price as time goes by.  A seller in today’s market can expect to receive 98.2% of asking price for their home, which is a significant increase over past years. 

What does this mean for buyers in today’s market?  Low inventory and high list/sale price ratios mean buyers should expect multiple offer situations with many homes selling for over asking price.  And the ever shortening days on market means buyers have to be ready to strike when the right home comes on the market.  Buyers should be pre-approved by a reputable local bank, and have a crack Realtor (like those from Chatelain Real Estate) on their side to help them move quickly and decisively.

For sellers, the takeaway is: sell!  Please!  We need more inventory in the marketplace in order to balance out surging demand.  Continued low inventory will only keep pushing prices higher, further exacerbating our already crisis-level affordability issues.  And with so many buyers out there, you are sure to get top dollar for your home.

The big question is “what about 2021?”  Will the strong market hold?  Will prices continue to climb?  Or are we in a bubble whose collapse is imminent?  The short answer is, as always: “we have no idea.”  But for a long answer see part 2 --HERE-- with the most significant factors we see swimming around in the crystal ball on Agnes’ desk:

2020 was an unusual year to say the least and the vacation rental market on Cape Cod was no exception. Local hotels and motels suffered as many vacationers were either unable to travel or reluctant to be in shared spaces. However, when comparing our experience as short-term vacation rental brokers to the hotel industry, we found the comfort of a clean private vacation rental home to be an incredible draw during the pandemic. Let's unpack a couple points of interest from last season and determine if that may influence 2021 and beyond.

1. Renters were not discouraged from weekly home rentals

Let's review here briefly since March 2020 seems like it was a lifetime ago.  Once significant lock-downs were put in place by the Commonwealth in late March of 2020, short-term vacation rentals were put on hold. This shutdown prevented new leases from being written and left a looming question mark over the entire season. However, in early June when the restrictions on vacation rentals were lifted, the floodgates opened and boy did they ever. Most of June was spent furiously making up for the past 6 months of lost booking time and, as a result, our 2020 summer season was unmatched in recent memory for occupancy. Vacationers, after spending months cooped up in apartments and cities, wanted to get away and felt safer doing it in a professionally cleaned private home, like the ones we manage, than in a hotel, resort or other accommodation where more people congregate and comingle.

Vacationers were suddenly reminded that Cape Cod is a delightful getaway merely a day's drive from anywhere in New England, New York, and even down as far as Washington DC and farther west. The appeal of a sunny beach or private yard where you can spread out and remain socially distant from strangers - while also enjoying a cooling dip every now and again - is something that makes Cape Cod both unique and delightful in the vacation market. 

2. Peak Season and Off-season each got a little longer

In our experience the most popular "peak" weeks for vacation rentals on Cape Cod are the last two weeks in July and the first two weeks in August. Bookings usually are less competitive for the end of August (kids back in school) and earlier in July but last year saw our waiting lists extend to double digits, even for some of these off-peak weeks. 

In addition to the unprecedented summer season, off-season interest was also exceptional in 2020.  In a typical year, before mid June as well as after Labor Day are challenging to fill due to school schedules; yet both of these times saw far higher occupancy rates than usual. With students and parents working virtually,  many were able to either extend vacation time or come to the Cape to escape even during the school year or normal work weeks.  Additionally, we had a number of retirees and remote workers just looking for a change in scenery that filled many of these vacancies.

3. What can we expect in 2021?

Based on how much booking interest we are already seeing so far we expect that Cape Cod will remain top of list for summer vacations for this year at least, and hopefully for quite some time. After 2020's jarring nature of shutdowns, ever changing regulations, and palpable uncertainty, we also expect local businesses to be able to better cope with the nature of operating during a pandemic. Many local shops, restaurants, retailers etc... have spent the past 11 months honing their operations during a pandemic and will be able to manage the summer crowds without the uncertainty of last year. We see Cape Cod continue to be a delightful summer vacation destination and hope you can come and experience it for yourself this year or in the near future.

For more information on a summer vacation rental, see our available homes --HERE--