Real Estate Trends

Cape Cod Real Estate Market Update June 2019

May Review:

  Year over year the inventory is up 6.1% and has also been steadily increasing since January.  With new listings down from last year and flat compared to last month we will be keeping an eye on how this will affect inventory going forward though.  What will also be influencing the market for the foreseeable future is the incredibly low mortgage rate.  At the time of writing Cape Cod Five and the Cooperative Bank of Cape Cod both have their 30 year fixed mortgage rates at 3.875%, which is exceptionally low and certainly an aid to buyers.  Furthermore the median price for single family homes is essentially flat from this time last year and only slightly up from last month.  Do we know what the future holds?  Nope.  But we can say that right now the market is fairly well balanced between buyers and sellers which means it is a good time to both sell and buy.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Mar Apr May
    Closed Sales   291   331   441 
   Inventory    1,837   1,982   2,032 
   Median Sales Price   $421.5K     $425K     $427K  
   Avg Days on Market   120   120   101 
   Avg % of Original Price   93%   94%   95% 

 

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Cape Cod Market Update May 2019

April Review:

We are glad to see inventory building up in 2019.  With approximately 5.8 months of inventory of single-family homes the market is reaching sustainability (particularly favoring neither buyers nor sellers).  It is also worth noting that the year-over-year comparisons of month's supply has been up since July 2018 which could indicate that we have passed the minimum supply level in this market cycle.  However ever increasing median sales prices led to a 2% drop in affordability in April (down to 85), a point of growing concern for the long-term health of the Cape Cod real estate market.  While single-family homes continue to be below 100 on the affordability index the condominium market has essentially been increasing its affordability since October 2018.  Condominium affordability is at 144 on the index, which means Barnstable County's median household income is 144% of what is necessary to qualify for the median priced condominium.

Recent Market Summary

  Feb Mar Apr
    Closed Sales   201   291   331 
   Inventory    1,693   1,837   1,982 
   Median Sales Price   $408K     $421.5K    $425K 
   Avg Days on Market   130   120   120 
    Avg % of Original Price   91%   93%   94% 

 

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Cape Cod Market Update April 2019

March Review:

We'll go ahead and say it now, "this was a decent winter for weather."  Why does this matter for the real estate market on Cape Cod? With the seasonality of sales here an easy winter sets up sellers to get their properties on the market earlier in the year: i.e. February and March instead of March and April.  Last month inventory was up 10% from 2018 and this month it is up 15%.  This leaves us with 5.3 months of inventory in Barnstable County which, while still slightly seller favored, is more sustainable and healthy than the 4.7 months of inventory we saw at this time last year.  We do notice that the percent of original asking price received is down from last year, but up from February.  Finally, average days on market is 120 which brings up an important consideration.  Imagine paying two extra months of your mortgage, utilities, taxes and insurance. Now weigh that against a lower list price that will more quickly attract a buyer and result in a sale.  If you are considering selling we recommend working with professional Realtors so that you can devise a pricing and marketing strategy that accounts for your needs as a seller. 

Recent Market Summary

  Jan Feb Mar
    Closed Sales   229   201   291 
   Inventory    1,626   1,693   1,837 
   Median Sales Price   $395K     $408K     $421.5K  
   Avg Days on Market   112   130   120 
    Avg % of Original Price   92%   91%   93% 

 

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Cape Cod Market Update March 2019

February Review:

February saw the beginning of the Spring market on Cape Cod and the numbers tell an interesting tale.  We notice that average days on market has been steadily increasing while average percent of original price received has been declining.  It seems that buyers in the market are responding to overpriced houses by waiting longer to make offers and ultimately offering less.  We see this time and time again in smaller markets too, take an analysis we did for a client recently: Brewster Single Family sales in 2018. 

I'll explain briefly: 

Blue columns indicate the current price as a % of the original asking price.  In other words, the price that actually attracted a buyer.

Orange columns indicate the sale price as a % of the original price.

The three groups of columns show the houses that sold the fastest selling (left group at less than 25 days), median (middle group), and slowest selling (right group at more than 105 days).

Given all of that, we see houses that sell faster sell for closer to the asking price.  Homes that are on the market for longest are reduced to 94% of the original asking price before they attract a buyer and sell for only 90% of the original asking price. The takeaway is clear: if you price your house too high, it could spend more time on market and receive significantly less than the original asking price - ultimately costing you money.  It is important to work with local real estate experts to be sure you are well informed about how pricing strategies ultimately affect your bottom line.  

Recent Market Summary

  Dec Jan Feb
   Closed Sales 290 229 201
   Inventory 1,614 1,626 1,693
   Median Sales Price $385K $395K $408K
   Avg Days on Market 95 112 130
   Avg % of Original Price 93% 92% 91%

 

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Comments

  1. michael myslinski on

    I enjoy your updates. Thanks, Mike
    • Paul Chatelain on

      Thank you. We are happy to do it
  2. Michael Haidas on

    I too enjoy your updates. Best darn realtors on the Cape.
    • Paul Chatelain on

      Thanks Mike. Your vote of confidence is very much appreciated

Cape Cod Market Update February 2019

January Review: 

  January followed the trend of the last few months of throwing trends out of the window.  The economy recovered much of the ground lost in December but still feels shaky to many investors.  As a result mortgage rates seem to be on uncertain ground as well, though they are still at historic lows hovering in the low 4% range.  The real estate market in Barnstable County is showing some interesting shifts.  Inventory is at 4.8 months, the same as December.  This is atypical for the past three Januarys which all showed a decline in inventory compared to December.  Additionally median sales price is down nearly 3% from this time last year and days on market are up by 7 days.  We are interested to see if increasing inventory and improved affordability will follow.

Recent Market Summary

  Nov Dec Jan
Closed Sales 308 290 229
Inventory 1,968 1,614 1,626
Median Sales Price $435K $385K $395K
Avg Days on Market 100 95 112
Avg % of Original Price 94% 93% 92%

 

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December Review (in case you missed it)

January Market Update 2019

Hello to all and Happy New Year!  We wish you health and happiness for 2019

December Review: 

   If we had to choose a word for December it would be: schizophrenic.  Between large swings in the stock market, concomitant swings in the mortgage market and an uncertain future of rate hikes, frankly we feel a little addled.  The local housing market however continues to show strength despite these causes for concern.  While inventory was down from November, it is up 4% from this time last year and we are at 4.8 months of inventory, which is 11.6% higher than last year.  In other words we are seeing the trend continue where inventory of homes for sale is being built back up, though slowly.  Otherwise December continued the normal seasonal slump as people spent time with family over the holidays.  We still need a bit of time to finish crunching the numbers from all of 2018 but expect to see a full year analysis in the coming weeks.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Oct Nov Dec
Closed Sales 378 308 290
Inventory 2,252 1,968 1,614
Median Sales Price $480K $435K $385K
Avg Days on Market 98 100 95
Avg % of Original Price 94% 94% 93%

 

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Stay up to date on the MA short term rental Tax

MA Short Term Rental Tax

Massachusetts Governor Baker recently signed into law a change to the taxable nature of short term rentals.  This affects many of the property owners on Cape Cod who rent for less than 31 days in the summer months.  Some relevant information can be found on the Massachusetts Association of Realtors website here but a quick synopsis is as follows:

Highlights:

New Tax Changes:

  1. State: 5.7%
  2. Local: up to 6% (6.5 for Boston)
  3. Cape Cod & Islands: includes additional 2.75% to fund Cape Cod and Islands Water Protection Fund 
  4. A community impact fee of up to 3% may be assessed locally on professionally managed properties (Owners of two or more units in one town)
  5. Takes effect July 1, 2019.  Bookings made before January 1st, 2019 are exempt.
  6. Realtors who manage the rental bookings and collect the rent will likely be responsible for collecting the tax.
  7. Guidance and more details will follow from the IRS and state authorities.

We'll be keeping a sharp eye on this matter and updating you when we learn more information.  As always feel free to contact us with questions about how this will impact your rentals or your property management needs.

December Market Update

November Review: 

   After a busier than usual late fall we are starting to see the seasonal cooling off around the holidays.  Closed sales, inventory and median sales price were all down in November as both sellers and buyers tend to back off this time of year.  We also note that with 5.8 months supply of inventory the market is healthier compared to November last year (5.3 months).  The strong economy and hints from the Fed that rate hikes may be slowing down is good news for a healthy local market.  However the low affordability index (meaning the median house price costs more than the median income can afford) continues to be a point of concern.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Sept Oct Nov
Closed Sales 370 378 308
Inventory 2,291 2,252 1,968
Median Sales Price $437K $480K $435K
Avg Days on Market 89 98 100
Avg % of Original Price 95% 94% 94%

 

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November Market Update

October Review: 

Median Sales prices continue to climb in both the single family and condominium markets and, as a result, we saw a considerable drop in the affordability index for Barnstable County in October.  The inventory of homes dropped less than 2% since September and the current months of inventory, 6.6, is considered a healthy amount in a residential market.  Additionally average days on market increased and percent of original sales price decreased, indicating a better market for buyers.  The strong economic metrics and assurance the Fed will raise rates coupled with booming jobs reports and increasing wages could mean some changes in the real estate market here in Barnstable County.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Aug Sept Oct
Closed Sales 358 370 378
Inventory 2,182 2,291 2,252
Median Sales Price $420K $437K $480K
Avg Days on Market 90 89 98
Avg % of Original Price 95% 95% 94%

 

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October Market Update 2018

September Review:

September saw further gains in inventory with 6.7 months supply of single family homes.  Since September and October generally experience the last of the summer listing frenzy before the winter slump and, with the rising interest rates and other market trends leading towards a more buyer favored market, the growth in inventory may continue into October at least.  Median sales price continues to move upward compared to last year and, as a point of growing regional concern, the affordability index for Barnstable County continues to trend downwards.  

Recent Market Summary

  July Aug. Sept.
Closed Sales 330 358 370
Inventory 2,071 2,182 2,291
Median Sales Price $440K $420K $437K
Avg Days on Market 83 90 89
Avg % of Original Price 96% 95% 95%

 

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