Market Trends

Market Trends and Analysis - Part 3

    Our goal in this series is it to help you understand how we interpret markets on the Cape and how this informs our recommendations when developing pricing strategies.  In this installment we will be evaluating a specific market - single family homes on the water, Barnstable to Orleans (Homes on Water Bodies & Homes on Beaches). Immediately we notice some relevant trends.

    First the median sales price for these homes is much higher than the Barnstable County median at $1,200,000, yet take far longer to sell with a median days on market of 95 (and an average of 231).  To be fair these are expensive waterfront homes, occupy a smaller market niche, and ultimately take longer to sell.  We also see, based on the bar graph at left, that the group of fastest selling homes (43 days or less) sell for 94% of the asking price - as compared to Brewster in Part 2, those fastest selling homes did so in 25 days or less with 99% of the asking price. 

    Getting back to the waterfront case study, the homes that take longest to sell require price reductions on the order of 12% off the original asking price and only sell for 79% of the original asking price.  What we see here is that people tend to price waterfront homes very aggressively (high) and require significant reductions before they sell.  Furthermore these homes are sold for far less than the original asking price as well as the current asking price - something to think about if you are in the market for a $1,000,000 home on the water.  Consider also that many of these sellers have a price in mind and are willing, can afford, and believe that waiting will get their asking price; however, as is evident in the data, waiting longer does not return a higher sale price.

    We discovered one more interesting thing here.  When analyzing certain markets it is useful to know how square footage affects sale price - and it may not be what you think.  In this market (and this is not always the case) the larger the home the fewer dollars per square foot ($/sqft) it returns.  Using the trend line on the graph we would predict that a 9000sqft home would sell for about $500/sqft whereas a 1000sqft home would sell for closer to $600/sqft.  Mind this is a loose relationship but it is a trend that reappears in many markets.  The takeaway?  Larger waterfront homes are having a harder time selling than smaller ones - price reductions may be warranted earlier in developing a sales strategy.

  Check back next time for our final part in the series: some long term analyses.

Market Trends and Analysis - Part 4

    Our goal in this series is it to help you understand how we interpret markets on the Cape and how this informs our recommendations when developing pricing strategies.  For our final installment we will evaluate the Cape Cod market for the past 3 years (starting in October 2014).  

    First the inventory of single family homes has been dropping over the past few years.  This factor coupled with rising median sales prices and fewer days on market indicate an accelerating market in Barnstable County.  Another interesting factor to note is the significant decrease in homes for sale over the past year and that 2017 did not show as stark a seasonal bump in inventory as is typical.  Additionally the affordability index is trending towards less affordability on Cape Cod.  

    What's our take? If you are thinking of buying, our advice is not to wait.  Interest rates are at historic lows and, if the current market trend continues, homes will continue to become gradually more expensive.  The long-term news isn't all bad, though - there are numerous local, state, and federal initiatives in the works which plan to ease the affordability pinch here on the Cape.  For more information, check out this local housing forum featuring none other than our own Ned Chatelain.  But you don't have to wait for new programs to buy something - give us a call and we can put you in touch with the top-notch mortgage brokers we work with who can walk you through low-downpayment and no-downpayment mortgages, first time home-buyer programs, or local lending incentives that can make the difference between buying this year or buying in three years.

     On the other hand, If you are thinking of selling, this is good news for you.  The Spring is an excellent time to get your house on the market and winter is the best time to get it ready.  Give us a call today if you are interested in a home valuation and comparative market analysis.

September 2018 Market Update

August Review:  The big news here is that inventory continues to grow.  We currently have 6.4 months of single family home inventory in Barnstable County as well as increasing number of homes for sale (labeled as inventory in the table below).  Generally a market with around 5 and 6 months of inventory is considered healthy so we are relieved to see these numbers up again.  We also tend to see a spike in listings this time of year simply because people are done using their summer homes, but we'll have to wait and see if the trend continues.

 

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Recent Market Summary

  June July August
Closed Sales 413 330 358
Inventory 1,992 2,071 2,182
Median Sales Price $438K $440K $420K
Avg Days on Market 95 83 90
Avg % of Original Price 95% 96% 95%

 

November Market Update

October Review: 

Median Sales prices continue to climb in both the single family and condominium markets and, as a result, we saw a considerable drop in the affordability index for Barnstable County in October.  The inventory of homes dropped less than 2% since September and the current months of inventory, 6.6, is considered a healthy amount in a residential market.  Additionally average days on market increased and percent of original sales price decreased, indicating a better market for buyers.  The strong economic metrics and assurance the Fed will raise rates coupled with booming jobs reports and increasing wages could mean some changes in the real estate market here in Barnstable County.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Aug Sept Oct
Closed Sales 358 370 378
Inventory 2,182 2,291 2,252
Median Sales Price $420K $437K $480K
Avg Days on Market 90 89 98
Avg % of Original Price 95% 95% 94%

 

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January Market Update 2019

Hello to all and Happy New Year!  We wish you health and happiness for 2019

December Review: 

   If we had to choose a word for December it would be: schizophrenic.  Between large swings in the stock market, concomitant swings in the mortgage market and an uncertain future of rate hikes, frankly we feel a little addled.  The local housing market however continues to show strength despite these causes for concern.  While inventory was down from November, it is up 4% from this time last year and we are at 4.8 months of inventory, which is 11.6% higher than last year.  In other words we are seeing the trend continue where inventory of homes for sale is being built back up, though slowly.  Otherwise December continued the normal seasonal slump as people spent time with family over the holidays.  We still need a bit of time to finish crunching the numbers from all of 2018 but expect to see a full year analysis in the coming weeks.

 

Recent Market Summary

  Oct Nov Dec
Closed Sales 378 308 290
Inventory 2,252 1,968 1,614
Median Sales Price $480K $435K $385K
Avg Days on Market 98 100 95
Avg % of Original Price 94% 94% 93%

 

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